Overview
- A Red Oak Strategic survey commissioned by the pro‑Blakeman Strong and Safe super PAC found Gov. Kathy Hochul at 47 percent and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman at 43 percent with 10 percent undecided in a poll publicized in late July.
- The poll questioned 2,000 registered voters from July 7–12 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
- Red Oak’s internal memo showed Blakeman leading independents and doing best in suburban areas while Republicans reported higher interest in the race than Democrats.
- Other recent public polls show much wider leads for Hochul, for example a late‑June Siena College survey that gave her a 20‑point advantage, underscoring sharp differences in methodology and turnout assumptions across firms.
- Hochul retains a sweeping financial edge with about $21 million in her campaign account and additional party reserves while pro‑Blakeman super PACs backed by donors tied to MSG are preparing outside spending that could narrow the gap if turnout shifts.