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New One Earth Study Warns Key Climate Tipping Points Are Near, Elevating 'Hothouse Earth' Risk

The One Earth analysis links a year-long 1.5°C breach plus record CO2 to urgent global action.

Overview

  • An international team led by Oregon State University's William Ripple synthesizes recent research on 16 climate tipping elements and feedback loops in a paper published on 11 February.
  • The authors report signs that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets may already be destabilizing, with boreal permafrost, mountain glaciers and the Amazon rainforest close to tipping.
  • Global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for 12 consecutive months, and climate model simulations suggest the long‑term average may be at or near 1.5°C.
  • Atmospheric carbon dioxide now exceeds 420 parts per million, a level the authors say is likely the highest in at least two million years.
  • The study urges rapid emissions cuts, protection of carbon‑storing ecosystems, large‑scale renewable deployment, coordinated tipping‑point monitoring, and a socially just phaseout of fossil fuels.