Overview
- A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Elizabeth Cox and Chloe N. East finds no gains for U.S.-born workers from heightened immigration enforcement.
- Using arrest spikes to compare labor markets, the authors estimate about six likely undocumented workers leave jobs for every ICE arrest and roughly one U.S.-born job disappears for every six such exits.
- The study reports no sign that employers raised pay to lure U.S.-born workers, finding firms cut output when immigrant labor falls because the jobs often complement each other.
- Construction shows the strain as the employment rate for U.S.-born workers in the field fell about 3% and many firms report delays tied to labor shortages.
- Government data show about 1,008,000 fewer foreign-born workers since a March 2025 peak, and separate research warns mass deportations would lower real wages for U.S.-born workers and raise prices.