Particle.news
Download on the App Store

New Models Suggest Earth Could Escape Sun’s Red‑Giant Engulfment

Updated tidal physics and mass‑loss estimates drawn from observations of L2 Puppis push simulations toward orbital expansion that can counter inward tidal pull.

Overview

  • The study, published in Astronomy & Astrophysics in June 2026, used modern tidal‑dissipation prescriptions and revised stellar mass‑loss estimates to re-run Solar System evolution models.
  • Those updated tidal models predict weaker energy dissipation inside giant stars than earlier work assumed, which reduces the inward tidal pull that can draw planets into an expanding star.
  • To constrain how much the Sun might shed late in life the team used observations of the evolved star L2 Puppis, and greater mass loss in the models helps planetary orbits move outward.
  • Combined simulations show scenarios where Earth and Mars move to wider orbits and avoid engulfment while Mercury and Venus are still swallowed, but the result depends closely on uncertain physics.
  • Authors warn the outcome is not definitive, stress the five‑billion‑year timescale means this does not affect current habitability, and call for more observations and improved tidal and mass‑loss models.