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17h ago

New Jersey Governor’s Race Now a Dead Heat as Early Voting Favors Democrats

Fresh early-vote gains for Democrats put turnout at the center of a race now complicated by an ELEC ruling on a possible defamation suit.

Democratic candidate for New Jersey governor Mikie Sherrill speaks to a crowd in Westville, New Jersey, on October 11, 2025.
New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli prays with faith leaders while speaking to supporters at a restaurant popular with the Latino community in Paterson, New Jersey, on October 23, 2025.
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Campaign signs supporting New Jersey gubernatorial candidates Democratic Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are posted along a roadside in Mount Laurel on October 27, 2025.

Overview

  • A new co/efficient survey of 995 likely voters shows Mikie Sherrill at 48% and Jack Ciattarelli at 47%, within the margin of error, as other recent polls still give Sherrill a mid–single-digit lead.
  • Early and mail voting reports compiled by Michael Pruser indicate Democrats hold a sizable edge in returns, with roughly 57% of about 635,000 early ballots from registered Democrats versus 26% from Republicans, though these are not results.
  • New Jersey’s election watchdog approved an advisory allowing Ciattarelli to file a defamation lawsuit using personal funds over Sherrill’s opioid-related debate claim, a move both campaigns cast as favoring their narratives.
  • Both campaigns are escalating turnout drives, with Sherrill touting extensive door-knocking and calls plus a Nov. 1 Newark rally with Barack Obama, while Ciattarelli intensifies his statewide retail stops including in Democratic areas.
  • Early in-person voting runs through Nov. 2 and Election Day is Nov. 4, positioning late turnout patterns to determine whether Democrats’ early advantage holds or a Republican Election Day surge materializes.