Overview
- San José State University researchers working at Sanborn County Park report the fault’s long‑term slip rate appears steady and relatively faster over about 10,000 years based on landscape markers.
- The team's results have been reported publicly but remain unpublished and unreviewed, so they are preliminary and do not let scientists forecast when a major quake might occur.
- A separate line of research has found unusually high stress on the southern San Andreas near Cajon Pass, raising the risk that a large rupture could sever major roads, rail lines, water pipes, and power links.
- Scientists note that a faster slip rate generally means a fault can rupture more often, so emergency managers and residents are being urged to boost preparedness, retrofits, and supply resilience.
- Researchers say broader data and peer review are needed before models and planning scenarios are revised, and officials should focus now on strengthening infrastructure and response capacity.