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New Estimates Point to a California Population Stuck Near Zero Growth

Tiny gaps between state and federal counts reflect domestic outflows, lower births, and weaker immigration.

Overview

  • California’s Department of Finance estimates 39.529 million residents as of July, a year-over-year gain of 19,200.
  • The U.S. Census Bureau pegs the state at 39.355 million, a year-over-year decline of 9,465 and a net loss of roughly 200,000 since 2020.
  • From 2010 to 2024, about 10 million people moved from California to other states while just over 7 million moved in from elsewhere in the U.S., according to PPIC analyses of ACS data.
  • Leavers are disproportionately adults without college degrees, with Texas the top destination, and high housing costs cited as a key motivator.
  • Using the latest Census estimates, independent studies project California could lose about four U.S. House seats after 2030 as faster-growing states such as Texas and Florida gain seats.