Overview
- The municipal projection released on January 29 estimates about 587,900 residents by 2040, up roughly 16,400 from today’s ~571,500.
- Growth is expected from a net migration gain of around 41,000 that more than compensates for a cumulative natural decrease of about 24,500 as annual deaths rise toward 6,500 before easing.
- Fertility has fallen to roughly 1.09–1.1 children per woman in 2024–2025, with a modest uptick to around 1.3 assumed after a post‑2022 slump linked by statisticians to war, uncertainty and inflation.
- The forecast factors in semiconductor expansion, estimating about 8,000 new jobs that could bring roughly 4,800 additional arrivals, alongside students and other skilled workers.
- Outlooks vary by neighborhood—with expected gains in Mickten, Pirnaische Vorstadt and Friedrichstadt and aging-related shrinkage on the outskirts—while the city’s economic chief urges pro‑family support and improved infrastructure.