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New Data Show Californians Keep Leaving for Cheaper Nearby States

Lower housing costs of roughly $672 a month make homeownership far more attainable for leavers.

An image collage containing 3 images, Image 1 shows Nevada has emerged as the surprise winner of California’s decade-long population exodus, attracting more former residents per capita than any other state — including Texas and Florida, Image 2 shows Nevada’s appeal is straightforward: no state income tax, cheaper fuel, lower housing costs, and enough outdoor and urban amenities to soften the cultural transition, Image 3 shows The trend spans income levels, with higher earners now accounting for 40 percent of those leaving, up from 34 percent before the pandemic

Overview

  • A California Policy Lab analysis following households through 2025 finds continued net losses to other states, with about 150,000 more people leaving than arriving last year.
  • People who move out of California typically cut total monthly housing costs by about $672, with rents roughly $638 lower and median home prices about $398,000 cheaper in destination neighborhoods.
  • Movers accept average incomes about $339 per month lower, yet they are about 48% more likely to own a home seven years after leaving than comparable residents who stayed.
  • Departing Californians mostly relocate nearby, with Nevada the top per-capita destination at a net 81 arrivals per 10,000 residents, followed by Idaho, Oregon and Arizona.
  • Since the pandemic, a larger share of leavers come from higher‑income neighborhoods, a shift researchers say heightens risks to state tax revenue and could contribute to future losses of congressional seats under flat population projections.