Overview
- CSIS data show Russian forces averaging just 15–70 meters of daily progress on major fronts, slower than the Somme’s roughly 80 meters per day, with a newer drive toward Huliapole assessed at about 297 meters per day.
- The slow going is most evident around Pokrowsk, Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk, where Ukraine retains positions and a December capture claim in Kupyansk was contradicted by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s filmed visit.
- Russia’s net gains remained minimal at about 0.6% of Ukrainian territory in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025, with overall control estimated at roughly 120,000 square kilometers, or about 20% of the country.
- Western assessments estimate up to roughly 1.2 million Russian troops killed or wounded since 2022, including about 415,000 in 2025, with loss ratios put at around 2:1 or higher against Russia.
- Moscow continues strikes on energy and residential targets as trilateral talks with Ukraine and the United States convene in Abu Dhabi, with Kyiv announcing another meeting there and reporting that some U.S. officials link potential security guarantees to territorial concessions.