Overview
- Average U.S. tariff rates remain near 17% after last year’s broad increases imposed under emergency powers, following higher early peaks that were later scaled back.
- Independent estimates from economists and nonpartisan analysts place the inflation effect around 0.5–1.0 percentage points, with EconoFact calculating August 2024 CPI would have been about half a point lower without the tariffs.
- The Harvard Business School study cited by the White House finds retail prices rose after the tariffs and indicates U.S. consumers shouldered up to 43% of costs, while other analyses conclude most of the burden falls on Americans.
- Additional incidence estimates include the Kiel Institute’s finding that about $96 of every $100 in tariff revenue comes from U.S. pockets and Goldman Sachs’ projection that consumers and U.S. firms bear roughly three quarters of the costs.
- Trump’s claim of a sharply reduced trade deficit conflicts with Census data showing the gap widened in 2025, including a 37% jump in November, as the Supreme Court continues to weigh his use of the 1977 emergency law for tariffs.