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New Analyses Show Tariffs Raising Prices for U.S. Consumers as Firms’ Buffers Erode

Fresh research and market data indicate that initial cost absorption is fading, setting the stage for broader pass-through to shoppers.

Overview

  • Goldman Sachs estimates that through August companies passed about 37% of tariff costs to consumers, absorbed 51% and pushed 9% to suppliers, with pass-through expected to rise as inventories and margins thin.
  • An NBER working paper using European wine finds downstream markups amplified tariff effects, leaving consumers paying more per bottle in higher prices than the government collected in tariff revenue.
  • A Dallas Federal Reserve survey reported widespread harm from tariffs and found 80% of respondents had raised or planned to raise prices to offset higher costs.
  • Price gauges remain pressured, with a sharp producer price spike in July and Labor Department data showing September consumer inflation running at 3% year over year.
  • Treasury reported more than $31 billion in tariff revenue in August even as industry reports cite profit strains, including multibillion-dollar hits projected by major automakers.