Overview
- Goldman Sachs estimates that through August companies passed about 37% of tariff costs to consumers, absorbed 51% and pushed 9% to suppliers, with pass-through expected to rise as inventories and margins thin.
- An NBER working paper using European wine finds downstream markups amplified tariff effects, leaving consumers paying more per bottle in higher prices than the government collected in tariff revenue.
- A Dallas Federal Reserve survey reported widespread harm from tariffs and found 80% of respondents had raised or planned to raise prices to offset higher costs.
- Price gauges remain pressured, with a sharp producer price spike in July and Labor Department data showing September consumer inflation running at 3% year over year.
- Treasury reported more than $31 billion in tariff revenue in August even as industry reports cite profit strains, including multibillion-dollar hits projected by major automakers.