Overview
- Traders placed $430 million in bearish Brent futures bets Tuesday just 15 minutes before President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire.
- Exchange data show 4,260 lots were sold between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT during post‑settlement hours, a low‑volume window when trading is usually thin.
- The selling had little immediate impact, then Brent futures fell to a low of $96.83 within a minute of the announcement.
- This was the fourth such well‑timed wager since late March, after $500 million on March 23, $950 million on April 7, and $760 million on April 17 placed shortly before related policy news.
- The CFTC is investigating earlier March 23 and April 7 trades, Reuters reported, and regulators have not announced charges.