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Netflix's Stock Plunges as Q1 Cash Flow Surges

Record free cash flow and rapid ad‑tier uptake now test whether improving fundamentals can outweigh investor concerns about leadership change and rising content costs.

Overview

  • Netflix disclosed on July 1, 2026 that first‑quarter revenue was $12.25 billion and operating income was $3.96 billion, pushing operating margins to 32.3%.
  • Free cash flow nearly doubled to $5.1 billion in Q1, a figure boosted by a $2.8 billion termination fee from the unwound Warner Bros. Discovery deal while underlying FCF margins exceed 20%.
  • The ad‑supported plan now accounts for more than 60% of new sign‑ups in markets where it is offered and ad revenue is on track to reach about $3 billion in fiscal 2026 as Netflix adds live programming to sell more inventory.
  • Shares have tumbled roughly 40–44% from last year’s peak to trade near 24x trailing earnings after investors reacted to Reed Hastings stepping back, conservative guidance, a 37% rise in early‑year content spend, and technical selling.
  • Wall Street remains broadly positive with a strong buy consensus and an average price target near $114.80, and analysts project full‑year free cash flow of about $13.2 billion which would leave room for buybacks and further capital returns if cash generation holds.