Overview
- A Kan News poll published Sunday found Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar each at 23 Knesset seats, reflecting a dead heat between the two leading parties.
- The same poll projects the Eisenkot-led opposition bloc at 57 seats and Netanyahu's coalition at 52 seats, with Arab parties together holding 11 mandates that could be decisive in government formation.
- Smaller-party shifts are reshaping the race: Naftali Bennett's Beyachad has slipped to the low teens and Yair Golan's Democrats have fallen, while a Hendel–Tropper joint list cleared the threshold with four seats and tested right-wing challengers failed to enter the Knesset.
- Voter views on leadership and Gaza policy remain central: Netanyahu leads in suitability ratings at about 40% versus Bennett's 31%, he is narrowly ahead of Eisenkot at 40% to 36%, and 45% of respondents oppose a possible agreement with Hamas over Gaza.
- Because Israel's proportional system and a 3.25% threshold produce many small parties, coalition math will decide the outcome; analysts should watch whether Arab lists shift positions or rival Jewish lists gain ground before an expected October election window.