Overview
- NESO’s inaugural Gas Security of Supply Assessment finds supplies are adequate in normal winters but flags vulnerability in one‑in‑20‑year cold‑spell scenarios.
- If the single largest gas asset fails during an 11‑day freeze in 2030/31, peak‑day demand of 461 mcm could outstrip supply by 76 mcm, or about 16%.
- Rapid decline in North Sea production is set to push peak‑period import reliance toward roughly 90% in the 2030s, increasing exposure to global markets.
- The government has opened a consultation on mitigations that include boosting storage, expanding LNG import capacity, adding onshore pipelines and cutting peak‑day demand.
- NESO cautions that a severe shortfall could trigger emergency curtailments to factories and power stations, with homes affected only in extreme cases.