Overview
- Polls released over the weekend showed a razor‑thin national race: a Kan/Kantar survey put the anti‑Netanyahu bloc at 56 seats versus 53 for Netanyahu’s coalition, while a Channel 14/Next Data poll projected Likud and its allies at 62 seats.
- Multiple surveys report Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar in near parity for largest party status, with most estimates clustering in the low‑20s of Knesset seats for each list.
- New center‑right mini‑lists led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel and by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein are polling below the electoral threshold in some surveys, and their success or failure would shift coalition math by several mandates.
- Analysts warn that movements of only a few thousand votes—on the order of 10,000—could flip which small parties enter the Knesset and therefore determine whether Netanyahu or Eisenkot can form a government without relying on Arab‑majority parties.
- A related development on Tuesday shows Likud taking internal steps to secure loyalists on its slate, a sign the party is moving to lock in its ticket as the Oct. 27 election approaches.