Overview
- Nebius's stock fell about 31.1% in July, wiping back gains even though the shares are still up roughly 125% year to date.
- The company has rapidly scaled revenue, with AI cloud sales jumping from about $50 million in 2025 to roughly $399 million in Q1 2026.
- Nebius has raised large amounts of capital to fund expansion, including about $6.3 billion in Q1 that featured a $2 billion equity investment from Nvidia and $4.3 billion of convertibles, plus a $775 million debt raise in mid-July.
- Management is guiding $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion of group revenue for 2026 and a year-end run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion with about a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin, figures that shrink the stock's implied multiple versus trailing revenue.
- Near-term execution risks include heavy GPU and hardware spending (about $2.5 billion in Q1), expanded power commitments now above 4 gigawatts with up to 1.2 GW and land secured in Pennsylvania, and potential dilution or repayment pressure that will shape investor reaction after the Aug. 12 earnings report.