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Nebius Faces Split Wall Street Views as Shares Rally

Recent notes juxtapose rapid AI expansion with heavy capex, negative free cash flow, rising depreciation.

Overview

  • On Jan. 15, Morgan Stanley initiated at Equal Weight with a $126 target, citing scale potential yet warning on four-year depreciation, negative free cash flow through the 2.5 GW build by end-2026, and an aggressive $7–$9 billion Q4 2026 ARR goal.
  • Northland reaffirmed an Outperform on Jan. 6 with a $211 target and named NBIS a 2026 top pick, pointing to visibility on sourcing 2.5 GW of power and a reported $17 billion Microsoft partnership.
  • NBIS has climbed more than 80% over the past six months, and 75% of the 12 analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy, according to Yahoo Finance.
  • Jim Cramer urged caution, saying a slowdown by a large tech customer could halve the stock and suggesting it suits more speculative, younger investors.
  • Nebius develops full-stack AI infrastructure with large GPU clusters, cloud platforms and developer tools, and it also owns non-core assets including TripleTen, ClickHouse, Toloka and Avride.