Overview
- The National Bank of Ukraine kept its policy rate unchanged at 15.5% on October 23 to preserve a tight monetary stance.
- Its baseline October forecast points to the start of rate reductions in the first quarter of 2026.
- Headline consumer inflation slowed to 11.9% year over year in September, with the easing trend continuing into October.
- Core inflation decreased more slowly to about 11% in September as wage and energy costs kept underlying pressures elevated.
- The central bank projects inflation at 9.2% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026, reaching the 5% target by end-2027, with risks from power deficits, higher regulated prices and budget needs likely to restrain disinflation.