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NBA Owners Weigh '3-2-1' Draft Lottery Overhaul to Deter Tanking

A May 28 vote will decide a flatter, 16-team lottery meant to make losing less rewarding.

Overview

  • The proposed '3-2-1' system would widen the draft lottery to 16 teams and give clubs three, two, or one ping‑pong balls based on record and play‑in results.
  • The three worst records would enter a 'relegation zone,' a penalty tier with two balls and a 5.4% chance each at No. 1, with protection from falling past the 12th pick.
  • Guardrails in the framework would bar back‑to‑back No. 1 picks and three straight top‑five selections, and the drawing would set all top‑16 slots rather than only the top four.
  • League reporting says the plan has majority backing, with a Board of Governors vote set for May 28, a possible start with the 2027 draft, and a sunset review after 2029.
  • Reactions split as Mark Cuban predicts a surge in trades under flatter odds, while executives warn the worst teams face too harsh a drop and analysts flag new incentives to lose play‑in games, raising the prospect of tweaks before approval.