Overview
- Researchers reanalyzed CMIP6 climate simulations in Nature by focusing on the most extreme model outcomes instead of the usual multi-model average.
- Several models show drought frequency in major crop regions could rise sharply at 2°C, reaching up to about 50% in worst cases for areas like the U.S. Midwest, Ukraine, and parts of Asia and South America.
- Some simulations project five-day rainfall totals over densely populated areas rising by roughly 13% to 15% at 2°C, which implies higher flood risk even before higher global warming levels are reached.
- The study also finds stronger fire-weather conditions at 2°C in some models, raising the chance of large wildfires in places including Mediterranean and central European forests.
- Independent experts call the work important for risk planning and stress that these extreme outcomes remain lower-probability, which means decisions should weigh severe but uncertain regional impacts on food supplies, cities, and infrastructure.