Overview
- A new peer‑reviewed Nature analysis led by the Climate Impact Lab finds that historical and projected climate change has produced a modest overall increase in childhood malaria across sub‑Saharan Africa.
- The study shows climate is reducing transmission in some current hotspots, with modeled declines around 5 percent in several large West African countries and potential elimination in the hottest Sahelian areas.
- Cooler highland and southern regions are becoming more suitable for transmission, with modeled rises of about 5 percent in some highlands and up to 20 percent by 2100 in parts of the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa.
- Scenario modeling in the paper shows limiting warming to roughly 2°C would materially reduce excess cases, for example averting about five excess cases per 1,000 children in southern Africa under the mitigation scenario.
- Authors pair spatial maps with an Adaptation Roadmap that urges stepped‑up surveillance, targeted control and elimination financing, and health‑system preparedness to protect newly exposed populations who lack strong malaria experience.