Overview
- Nature’s retraction note says the authors agreed the required changes were too substantial for a correction and that they will resubmit a revised paper for peer review.
- Critiques published in August identified anomalies in Uzbekistan’s economic data and statistical issues, with recalculations lowering the 2100 global GDP loss from about 62% to roughly 23%.
- The authors’ revised analysis reports smaller mid‑century impacts and wider uncertainty, including a shift in projected income reduction from 19% to 17% after 26 years, which has not yet been peer reviewed.
- The now‑withdrawn study was widely cited by policy and financial bodies such as the NGFS, OECD, World Bank and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, influencing central‑bank scenario work.
- Critics, including Christof Schötz, say key methodological problems remain unresolved, particularly treatment of spatial correlations, leaving the original results unreliable for policy use.