Overview
- NASA and the U.S. Space Force forecast reentry around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10 with a ±24-hour window and continue real-time tracking.
- The 600-kilogram spacecraft is expected to largely burn up during descent, though some components could survive to the surface.
- Officials estimate the chance of injury to any person at about 1 in 4,200, reflecting the low likelihood of debris landing in populated areas.
- Revised models attribute the accelerated orbital decay to the 2024 solar maximum, which expanded the upper atmosphere and increased drag.
- Launched in 2012 and deactivated in 2019, the mission yielded key findings—including evidence of a temporary third radiation belt—while its twin, Probe B, is not projected to reenter before about 2030.