Particle.news
Download on the App Store
48 ARTICLES
·
last wk.

NASA’s Van Allen Probe A On Track for Uncontrolled Reentry in March 10 Window

Heightened solar activity accelerated the probe's orbital decay, with NASA estimating a very low risk to people from any surviving debris.

NASA
Image
A trail of a group of SpaceX's Starlink satellites passing over Uruguay as seen from the countryside.

Overview

  • U.S. Space Force forecasts reentry around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10 with about a 24-hour uncertainty, with agencies continuing to refine the timing.
  • NASA expects most of the 1,323‑pound (600‑kilogram) spacecraft to burn up, though some components could survive, placing individual risk at roughly 1 in 4,200.
  • Exact location predictions remain difficult due to atmospheric variability, and any debris is most likely to fall into open ocean, with no injuries reported.
  • The probe is reentering years earlier than initial 2034 projections after a strong solar maximum in 2024 increased upper‑atmosphere density and drag.
  • Launched in 2012 with a twin to study Earth’s radiation belts, the mission ended in 2019; Probe B remains in orbit and is not expected to reenter before 2030.