Overview
- U.S. Space Force predicts reentry around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10 with an uncertainty of about 24 hours, and timing updates are still being refined.
- NASA expects most of the 600‑kilogram spacecraft to burn up, with some components surviving, and estimates the injury risk at roughly 1 in 4,200.
- Exact impact location remains unpredictable, though any surviving fragments are statistically more likely to land in the ocean given Earth’s geography.
- The twin Van Allen Probes launched in 2012 and operated until 2019, yielding key results on Earth’s radiation belts, including evidence of a transient third belt.
- Probe B remains in a higher orbit with reentry not expected before the early 2030s according to current assessments.