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11h ago

NASA’s Van Allen Probe A Expected to Re-Enter Tonight With Low Risk to Public

An unexpectedly active solar cycle sped up the spacecraft’s orbital decay, prompting continuous tracking updates.

NASA
Image
A trail of a group of SpaceX's Starlink satellites passing over Uruguay as seen from the countryside.

Overview

  • U.S. Space Force predicts re-entry around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10 with an uncertainty window of plus or minus 24 hours.
  • NASA expects most of the 1,323-pound spacecraft to burn up, though some components may survive, with an estimated injury risk of about 1 in 4,200.
  • Exact landing location remains unpredictable, but any surviving debris is more likely to fall over ocean than populated land.
  • Earlier analyses projected re-entry around 2034, but a stronger-than-expected 2024 solar maximum increased atmospheric drag and accelerated the descent.
  • Launched in 2012 and deactivated in 2019, the twin-probe mission advanced radiation-belt science, and Probe B is not expected to re-enter before 2030.