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NASA Warns Thousands of Mid‑Sized Asteroids Remain Undetected as Deflection Capability Lags

Officials say the near‑term risk is a large detection gap with no deflection mission on standby.

Overview

  • NASA’s Kelly Fast told the AAAS meeting that only about 40% of near‑Earth objects 140 meters and larger are cataloged, leaving a large, uncertain population untracked.
  • Estimates suggest roughly 15,000 such ‘city‑killer’ asteroids remain undiscovered, with some reports citing totals that imply as many as about 25,000 in this size range.
  • Johns HopkinsNancy Chabot, who led NASA’s 2022 DART test, said no comparable spacecraft is ready to launch today if a threatening object were found.
  • DART’s impact on the moonlet Dimorphos proved a kinetic strike can alter an asteroid’s path, but experts say real‑world deflection would require time, planning and hardware that does not yet exist.
  • NASA’s NEO Surveyor space telescope is expected to launch next year to accelerate discovery, with a goal of finding over 90% of 140‑meter‑class objects within about a decade.