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NASA Rules Out 2032 Lunar Impact From Asteroid 2024 YR4 After JWST Data

Fresh JWST measurements in February enabled JPL to refine the orbit, ruling out a lunar strike.

Overview

  • JPL’s updated solution now forecasts a safe lunar flyby on December 22, 2032 at roughly 13,200 miles (about 21,200 kilometers) from the surface.
  • Two ultra-faint detections by JWST on February 18 and 26, 2026 supplied precise astrometry that tightened the trajectory.
  • NASA’s Molly Wasser said the revision reflects improved precision in the predicted position rather than a change in the asteroid’s path.
  • Early analyses had suggested up to a 3.1% chance of Earth impact and a 4.3% chance for the Moon, but Earth risk had already been reduced to zero.
  • The roughly 60-meter object poses no current threat, with a prior non-threatening Earth pass on December 25, 2024 and another close approach expected on December 17, 2028 without incident.