Multi-State Severe Outbreak Sends Floods, Hail and Destructive Winds Across Midwest and Plains

Overview

• Life-threatening flash flooding is ongoing in parts of the Ohio Valley and central Kentucky, with the Weather Prediction Center reporting multiple flash‑flood reports and several catastrophic flash‑flood warnings.
• The Storm Prediction Center has kept multiple watches in effect across the Plains and Dakotas, including Tornado Watch 406, because discrete supercells and growing clusters can produce very large hail, widespread 60–100+ mph gusts, and a few strong tornadoes.
• Convectively induced vortices (MCVs), outflow boundaries and a 30–40+ kt nocturnal low‑level jet are repeatedly triggering storm regeneration and backbuilding, which causes the hazards to shift rapidly in location and type.
• Forecasters note precipitable water values near or above 2 inches and model guidance showing localized rainfall rates of 1–3+ inches per hour with possible additional accumulations of 3–5+ inches, and saturated soils mean small additional totals can cause rapid runoff and flash flooding.
• Emergency coordination remains active: SPC and WPC are issuing mesoscale discussions and precipitation products while local NWS forecast offices and River Forecast Centers provide the immediate warnings, flood statements and hydrologic guidance people need to respond.