Overview
- An Electoral Calculus model using a Find Out Now survey projects Reform UK on 188 seats, the Conservatives on 159, Labour on 86, the Greens on 71, the Liberal Democrats on 61, the SNP on 44 and Plaid Cymru on 17, pointing to a hung parliament.
- The same research puts Reform at 24% of the vote with the Conservatives on 21% and Labour on 17%, and it notes Reform’s support has slipped from earlier peaks as anti‑Reform tactical voting is factored into seat estimates.
- Polling expert Sir John Curtice says strong council gains for Reform and the Greens on May 7 would build activist bases and weaken Labour and Conservative local machines, making a two‑party comeback less likely.
- London polling from YouGov and More in Common suggests the Greens could top the vote in inner boroughs such as Hackney and Lewisham, with Reform competitive in outer areas like Bexley, Bromley and Havering, which could constrain Mayor Sadiq Khan’s agenda through tougher council partners.
- MRP, a method that maps national polling onto local demographics, is sensitive to small shifts and to organized tactical voting, so council results that change party infrastructures could alter future seat maps and any coalition arithmetic in Westminster.