Overview
- The Migration Policy Institute estimates that about 15.8 million people were living in the United States without permanent authorization in mid‑2024, a rise of roughly 5 million since 2019 driven by peak arrivals in 2022–2023.
- The composition changed sharply as Mexico’s share fell from 62% in 2010 to 35% by 2024 even though Mexico remains the largest single origin with about 5.52 million people.
- MPI counts roughly +2.3 million arrivals from Central America and +1.3 million from South America between 2019 and 2024, with Venezuelan arrivals rising most among South American countries.
- Policy shifts under the Biden administration — including parole programs, TPS extensions and other humanitarian measures — left up to 40% of the unauthorized population holding temporary or liminal protections and many with work authorization.
- The Trump administration has ended humanitarian parole, begun rolling back TPS, expanded arrests and deportations, and issued new asylum restrictions that are expected to shrink the unauthorized population starting in 2026 while prompting legal challenges and industry warnings about labor shortages.