Overview
- Rep. Seth Moulton, who announced the policy Wednesday, barred all of his congressional staff from using platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi to trade on political, legislative, regulatory, or geopolitical outcomes or on information learned through their jobs.
- The PREDICT Act, introduced Wednesday by Reps. Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski, would prohibit members of Congress, the president and vice president, political appointees, and their spouses and dependent children from such trading, with a 10% civil fine and full disgorgement of profits to the U.S. Treasury.
- Lawmakers cited reports of unusually well‑timed, high‑profit wagers tied to U.S. strikes on Iran and a leadership change in Venezuela, with investigators tracking accounts on Polymarket that cleared more than $1 million.
- Platforms tightened rules this week, with Kalshi endorsing standardized restrictions and adding screens that block candidates and athletes from related markets, and Polymarket banning trades based on confidential information or by people who can influence an event.
- Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker said Moulton’s step will likely prompt more congressional offices to adopt similar bans, signaling a broader shift toward stricter ethics rules for staff and officials.