Overview
- The 60-day memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which expired on Monday, ended the formal negotiating window without an agreed extension or direct talks between the two governments.
- Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to a small fraction of normal levels, with ship‑tracking data showing only a handful of transits and no regular crude shipments, driving up oil and gasoline prices.
- Iran and Oman say they have reached an understanding on a transit route and are finalizing a joint announcement, but Washington rejects any arrangement that cedes control or permits tolling of the waterway.
- Tehran has told mediators it is shifting from a defensive posture to a 'fully offensive' stance and warned it could take military action to break a U.S. naval blockade, while President Trump has threatened Oman and floated declaring the strait U.S. territory.
- Mediators including Qatar, Pakistan and Oman continue backchannel contacts even as the standoff raises political pressure at home for both sides, risks wider regional attacks on shipping, and leaves markets sensitive to further spikes in energy costs.