Overview
- Freddie Mac’s survey shows the 30-year fixed averaging 6.19% for the week ending Dec. 4, down from 6.23%, with the 15-year at 5.44%.
- Mortgage Bankers Association data for the week ended Nov. 28 shows purchase applications up 2.5% as refinance activity fell for a fifth straight week.
- Markets assign just under a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, and some lenders have already adjusted pricing ahead of the decision.
- Mortgage costs track longer-term Treasury yields and have recently tended to ease before Fed moves, with limited declines afterward in prior cuts.
- Outlooks point to incremental relief next year, with Zillow projecting rates stay above 6% in 2026 and Realtor.com expecting roughly 6.3% and more inventory.