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Mortgage Rates Return to High‑6% Range, Dampening Demand

Rising Treasury yields, wider mortgage spreads and higher oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict have pushed consumer mortgage costs higher and cut buyer affordability.

Overview

  • Mortgage rates moved into the high‑6% range this week, with major measures clustering roughly between 6.6% and 6.9% depending on the survey and data provider.
  • Higher 10‑year Treasury yields, which reached a 2026 peak, plus mortgage spreads near 2% have combined to lift consumer mortgage rates above recent lows.
  • Data show a clear pullback in activity as applications fell, with refinances declining more steeply and total application volume slipping below year‑ago levels.
  • Lenders and real‑estate agents are updating payment estimates and adjusting staffing as higher rates squeeze affordability and slow parts of the summer market.
  • Most forecasters expect rates to stay elevated above 6% for the foreseeable future, with potential moderation later in the year dependent on inflation and bond‑market moves.