Particle.news
Download on the App Store
14 ARTICLES
·
last wk.

Mortgage Rates Remain Stuck Near Mid-6% After Iran Violence Lifts Yields

Geopolitical-driven oil spikes plus higher inflation expectations have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up and kept 30-year mortgage rates elevated as markets eye the July 14 CPI report.

Brittany Smith holds up the key to her home as she stands in front of her front door Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025, in Springfield. Smith recently went through the process of buying a home for the first time.
A under contract for home sale sign is seen outside of a home in Niles, Ill., Thursday, June 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
Image

Overview

  • Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed mortgage averaged about 6.49% on July 9, with lender panels and pricing feeds reporting similar mid-6% readings this week.
  • Renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities and a jump in oil prices have raised inflation fears, which pushed the 10-year Treasury yield higher and prompted lenders to raise mortgage pricing.
  • Mortgage rates move mainly with the 10-year Treasury yield and investors’ inflation expectations rather than with the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
  • Forecasters now expect only gradual easing in rates through the rest of 2026, with Zillow projecting roughly 6.3% by year-end, while supply-boosting legislation is likely to help affordability only over multiple years.
  • High home prices and elevated rates are cutting buyer activity—NAR reported a $440,600 median in June and falling monthly sales—and the June CPI release on July 14 is the next major data point that could shift bond yields and mortgage costs.