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Mortgage Rates End 2025 Near 6% as 2026 Outlook Signals Only Modest Relief

Economists attribute the limited decline to mortgage pricing that tracks the 10-year Treasury rather than Fed policy moves.

Overview

  • As of December 15, Zillow pegs the average 30‑year purchase rate at 6.12% and the 15‑year at 5.50%, with the 30‑year refi at 6.65%.
  • Despite three Fed cuts totaling 0.75 percentage point in 2025, Freddie Mac data show the 30‑year fixed averaged 6.62% for the year.
  • Major forecasters at Realtor.com, NAR, Redfin and Fannie Mae expect 2026 30‑year averages of roughly 5.90% to 6.30%.
  • Lenders often price moves before Fed decisions, so rates can tick up or down after meetings as markets recalibrate.
  • NAR’s Nadia Evangelou says a 50–60 basis‑point drop paired with stronger incomes could help some buyers, yet a roughly 500,000‑home shortfall near the $260,000 price point limits broader affordability.