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Mortgage Rates Edge Toward 7% as Geopolitics and Inflation Keep Yields High

Higher oil-driven inflation expectations plus a Federal Reserve that left further hikes possible make upcoming jobs and inflation reads decisive for rates

Overview

  • Mortgage borrowing costs remain in the mid-to-high 6% range with the 30-year fixed rate reported at about 6.63% in Bankrate’s Aug. 5 survey and 6.69% in Freddie Mac’s Aug. 6 weekly survey.
  • Daily aggregator data showed slightly higher readings with Zillow reporting a 30-year purchase rate near 6.84% on Aug. 7, illustrating variation between weekly surveys and daily feeds.
  • Markets and mortgage pricing have risen since late February as the U.S.–Iran conflict lifted oil prices, which pushed inflation expectations higher and pushed 10-year Treasury yields up.
  • The Federal Reserve paused its policy-rate increases but signaled hikes remain possible, so jobs, July CPI and the late-August PCE reports will likely dictate whether rates fall or stay elevated.
  • Higher rates combined with still-elevated home prices are reducing affordability, slowing buyer demand and keeping many homeowners locked into low older loans, which tightens supply and could further cool sales.