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Morgan Stanley Lifts Nebius Target After Blowout Quarter

The update underscores strong demand with unresolved execution risk.

Overview

  • Nebius drew a higher Morgan Stanley price target of $144 with an Equal-weight rating that reflects better pricing, faster capacity progress, and demand that exceeds current supply.
  • Nebius reported first-quarter revenue of $399 million, adjusted EBITDA of $129.5 million, and annualized run-rate revenue of $1.92 billion, with the AI unit near a 45% margin.
  • The company said contracted power now exceeds 3.5 gigawatts and it guided to more than 4 gigawatts by year-end with over three quarters of that capacity owned.
  • Nebius ended the quarter with more than $9 billion in cash after a $2 billion NVIDIA equity investment and $4.3 billion in convertible securities, and it raised 2026 capex guidance to $20 billion to $25 billion.
  • Forbes reported a backlog nearing $50 billion built on multi‑year deals that include $27 billion with Meta and $17.4 billion with Microsoft.