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Moonlake Shares Plunge on Mixed Phase 3 Results for Hidradenitis Drug

Analysts question the approval path, citing mixed efficacy alongside a high placebo response.

Overview

  • One Phase 3 study showed about 35% of patients on sonelokimab achieved a symptom reduction at four months versus roughly 18% on placebo, a statistically significant but smaller-than-expected effect.
  • A second late-stage trial failed its primary endpoint, which the company attributed to an unexpectedly high placebo response.
  • Moonlake said pooled data across both studies demonstrated clinically meaningful and statistically significant improvement and plans to discuss analytical strategies with regulators.
  • The stock dropped more than 80% to below $10 as multiple analysts labeled the results disappointing and cast doubt on near-term approval and sales potential.
  • Recent approvals of NovartisCosentyx and UCB’s Bimzelx have heightened competitive pressure, with RBC calling sonelokimab’s effect size uncompetitive.