Overview
- Moody’s, in its July H1 2026 Monitor, says the Recaudación Federal Participable (RFP) grew just 0.9% nominal in the first half of 2026, which it treats as a real contraction for the revenue pool that funds most federal participaciones.
- The agency reports that participaciones were unevenly distributed in January–June 2026 with nine states up and 23 down, and notes the largest nominal falls were in Campeche, Sinaloa and Chihuahua.
- Moody’s found that participaciones still make up about 76% of operating revenues for rated states, so weaker transfers are directly compressing operating margins across many jurisdictions.
- Many states and some municipalities began recording declines in liquidity in Q1 2026, and Moody’s says low debt and cash buffers give only short‑term relief because local options to raise more own revenues are limited.
- Moody’s points to the FEIEF, which held 13,071 million pesos at Q1 and could be tapped or expanded through debt issuance to close gaps, while it warns that continued revenue weakness into 2027 could trigger negative credit action and tighter local services or hiring freezes.