Overview
- Moody’s projects a 2026 public deficit of about 5.2% of GDP, above the government’s 5% goal in the newly adopted budget.
- France’s sovereign rating is affirmed at Aa3 with a negative outlook, with Moody’s stressing that fiscal improvement hinges largely on higher revenues.
- The agency cautions that expenditures are likely to exceed budget assumptions even if their real growth stays slightly below GDP next year.
- The 2026 finance bill was enacted via Article 49.3 after the minority government failed to secure a vote, a dynamic Moody’s says complicates agreement on future budgets ahead of 2027.
- Bercy expects annual interest payments on public debt to exceed €60 billion from 2026, increasing pressure on the public finances.