Overview
- Moody’s report released Wednesday says Pemex is expected to record negative free cash flow through 2028, keeping the company under sustained financial pressure.
- The agency notes the federal government provided more than $40 billion in support in 2025 and budgeted about $14 billion for 2026, and it expects visible government backing to continue during the current administration.
- Pemex has tapped local debt markets in 2026 but Moody’s says those issues are being used to roll over obligations instead of financing capital spending that would stop production decline.
- Moody’s highlights high decline rates in Pemex’s mature oil fields and a roughly 51% drop in real investment early in 2026, which together mean large reinvestment is needed just to sustain current output.
- The shift of crude to domestic refineries and government-set fuel prices compress downstream margins and Moody’s warns lower capital spending raises risks to operational reliability and industrial safety.