Overview
- Moody’s projects real GDP growth of 6.4% for FY2026–27, the fastest among G-20 economies, below the Economic Survey’s 6.8–7.2% range.
- The agency expects banks’ asset quality to remain broadly stable with localized stress in MSME portfolios and increasing competition for deposits.
- System-wide loan growth is forecast at about 11–13% in FY27, with strong capitalization supported by internal capital generation.
- The RBI lifted preliminary FY27 growth projections to 6.9% for Q1 and 7.0% for Q2, citing resilient consumption and investment.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts 6.9% GDP growth in 2026 and estimates the new US–India trade deal could add roughly 0.2 percentage points to annual GDP.