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Moody’s Puts France on Negative Outlook, Keeps Aa3 Sovereign Rating

The shift reflects rising risks from political gridlock that could derail deficit reduction.

Overview

  • The decision leaves Moody’s a notch above Fitch and S&P, which both cut France to A+ in recent weeks, with Morningstar DBRS also lowering its view in September.
  • Moody’s cites a fragmented parliament and the partial reversal of structural reforms, highlighting the suspension of elements of the 2023 pension overhaul.
  • France faces the eurozone’s largest public deficit and a debt load near €3.5 trillion, which the agency warns heighten fiscal sustainability risks.
  • Economy minister Roland Lescure said the government takes note and remains committed to a 5.4% of GDP deficit in 2025 and a return below 3% by 2029.
  • Markets reacted calmly, with 10‑year yields around 3.4% and some analysts saying pricing already aligns with an A to A‑ risk profile.