Overview
- Moody’s, which issued its decision Friday, kept France’s sovereign rating at Aa3 and left the outlook negative.
- The negative outlook reflects the risk that a split Parliament will hobble lawmaking and stall deficit cuts after 2026.
- Moody’s cited recent improvement in public finances, with the deficit narrowing from 5.8% of GDP in 2024 to 5.1% in 2025 and a 2026 deficit now forecast at 5%.
- The agency said a budget deal between the moderate left and the center-right supports the strength of France’s institutions for now.
- France remains one notch above S&P and Fitch in Moody’s scale, and the agency projects about 1% growth and 1.4% inflation in 2026.