Overview
- Mark Zandi says the Vicious Cycle Index crossed its recession threshold in January and stayed in that zone through March.
- The index modifies the Sahm rule by adjusting the unemployment rate with a five-year trend in labor-force participation to capture discouraged workers.
- March showed a 178,000 job gain after a February decline, and participation fell to 61.9%, which points to fewer people actively looking for work.
- Zandi warns that higher oil linked to the Iran war could tip the economy into a downturn, with a move above about $125 a barrel as a key risk level.
- Moody’s now puts the 12‑month recession odds near 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs is at 30% and EY‑Parthenon is at 40%, and Zandi notes the tool is proprietary and any official NBER call would come later.