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Molina Slashes 2025 Profit Outlook Again as ACA Costs Surge

A spike in medical costs, especially in ACA plans, forced a sharp guidance cut.

Overview

  • Molina’s stock fell about 19% after-hours and more than 20% early Thursday, with peers Centene and Oscar also trading lower following the update.
  • Third-quarter adjusted EPS dropped to $1.84 from $6.01 a year earlier as net income fell to $79 million on revenue of roughly $11.5 billion.
  • The consolidated medical care ratio rose to 92.6% and the ACA Marketplace ratio jumped to 95.6% from 73% a year earlier, which the CEO called an unprecedented trend.
  • Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance was cut to about $14 while premium revenue guidance was lifted to roughly $44.5 billion, and the company projected fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of about $0.35.
  • A preliminary 2026 outlook targets earnings roughly in line with 2025 with reduced Marketplace exposure, including average ACA price increases near 30% and a county footprint trimmed by roughly one-fifth.